Where are the pro-trade Democrats? America won’t increase middle-class incomes and create jobs without them.

From jobs and incomes to gas and food prices, Democrats are absolutely right that the Bush years have been a disaster for the forgotten middle class. Every homeowner in America knows that we’re poorer than we were eight years ago. But if Democrats are serious about turning the economy around, we have to be willing to tell people that job and income growth depends on Washington’s willingness to get its fiscal house in order, invest in people and technology, and, yes, expand trade.

History proves that expanding trade and productivity help create growth. We learned that the hard way when the Smoot-Hawley tariff helped crush trade and exacerbate the Great Depression. Conversely, we have seen trade drive the economy during the great expansions of the 1960s and 1990s.

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Three-quarters of the people and three-quarters of the states will be mere spectators to the 2008 presidential election. This (and other) shortcomings of the current system of electing the president stem from the winner-take-all rule. This rule awards all of a state’s electoral votes to the candidate who receives the most popular votes in each state.

Because of the winner-take-all rule, candidates have no reason to poll, visit, advertise, organize, or pay attention to the concerns of states where they are comfortably ahead or hopelessly behind. Instead, candidates concentrate their attention on a small handful of closely divided “battleground” states. In 2004, candidates concentrated over two-thirds of their money and campaign visits in just five states; over 80% in nine states; and over 99% of their money in just 16 states. The New York Times reported (May 11, 2008) that both major political parties have already reached the conclusion that there will be only 14 battleground states in 2008.

Another shortcoming of the current system is that a candidate can win the presidency without winning the most popular votes nationwide. In 5 of the last 12 presidential elections, a shift of a few thousand votes in one or two states would have elected the second-place candidate. The current system has produced the wrong winner in 4 of 55 presidential elections - a 1 in 14 failure rate.

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Just steps from Bunker Hill, site of one of the earliest battles of the American war for independence, a new revolution is taking place. At the Clarence R. Edwards Middle School in Boston’s Charlestown neighborhood, Principal Jeff Riley, teachers, students, parents and school partners have declared independence from the traditional school schedule by adding the extra learning time students need to succeed.

At Edwards Middle, where the closing bell had rung at 1:30 p.m. for generations, the school schedule has been significantly expanded and thoroughly redesigned, with children now staying until 4:30. The additional time means more math, English and science, but also additional enrichment programs including arts, drama, chorus, music, apprenticeships, swimming, rock climbing, and much more. Teachers also have more time to collaborate, review student data and to plan their lessons.

The results have been profound. Edwards Middle, once among the worst middle schools in Boston, is now one of the best. Last year, math scores at the school rose across all grades; proficiency rates doubled while failure rates dropped by 35 percent. The percentage of Edwards students scoring proficient on the math section of the Massachusetts assessment test increased at more than double the state and district rates.

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Amid growing congressional concern about manmade climate change, the U.S. Senate is slated this week to take up legislation on the issue. The leading proposal, sponsored by Sens. Joseph Lieberman (I-CT) and John Warner (R-VA), seeks to return U.S. greenhouse-gas emissions to 2005 levels by 2050 — a change that scientists say is necessary to avert global warming’s worst effects.

The measure would cap emissions from electricity generators, large industrial sources, and oil. To set the system in motion, the government gives away or sells pollution allowances. Companies that cut their emissions can sell their excess allowances to those that cannot. To meet the 2050 emissions target, the cap declines gradually each year, which in turn raises the price of carbon allowances.

Although there is growing support across the political spectrum for this kind of “cap and trade” approach to address climate change, there are three key sticking points. The first of these is a fear of fossil-fuel price hikes that could cripple the U.S. economy. In response to this concern, Sen. Jeff Bingaman (D-NM) introduced a bill in 2005 to contain costs by ensuring that U.S. companies pay no more than $12 for every ton of CO₂ they emit. This price ceiling would change each year to account for inflation. Some environmental groups say such a measure would stymie clean-energy investment and retard meaningful emissions reductions.

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If America’s air travel system is any indication, the sky really is falling.

Flights have been canceled by the hundreds due to safety concerns. Four airlines have gone out of business since the end of March, in large part because of rising fuel costs. Six broad fare increases have gone into effect this year alone, along with new charges on everything from pillows to a first piece of checked luggage. And here in the New York metropolitan area, the nation’s largest market, the delays have been so chronic that the federal government has imposed flight caps and installed a new “airport czar” to make sense of the mess.

And just think - the summer travel season is just beginning.

While the laws of supply and demand will undoubtedly correct some of the problems the airline industry faces, the future for air travelers is not so bright. Most economists agree that airline mergers, fewer flights, and new, more fuel-efficient planes will eventually help put the industry on stronger financial ground.

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It’s been ten days since Cyclone Nargis ravaged Burma, leaving tens of thousands of people dead and more than one million homeless. The situation daily grows more desperate, yet Burma’s military junta continues to block international efforts to deliver food, water and medicine to the victims. In an unconscionable display of nationalistic vanity, the generals insist that they deliver all emergency aid, even though they clearly lack the capacity to do so with anything like the necessary speed.

Meanwhile, the junta (which refers to the nation as Myanmar) went ahead with a May 10 national referendum on a sham constitution. For the generals, validating their repressive rule apparently takes precedence over preventing more Burmese citizens from falling victim to the storm’s aftermath.

The international community has responded with its usual mixture of moral outrage and impotence. But this need not mean that the United States, which has the will and the capacity to help, should stand by helplessly.

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Mother’s Day came early this year for the women of New Jersey. Last week, New Jersey Governor Jon Corzine signed a paid family leave bill making his state the third in the country to allow workers paid time off to care for a new child or family member. The law, which goes into effect on July 1, 2009, will allow workers to take up to six weeks off with pay. It will be financed through a payroll deduction costing workers about $33 per year. New Jersey residents who take the leave will be able to get two-thirds of their salary, up to $524 per week.

Paid family leave laws, which have already been implemented in California and Washington, help both men and women. Yet, because family care giving typically falls on the shoulders of women, this New Jersey law may ease one worry among the mothers of the Garden State: how can I keep my paycheck and care for my family in the face of an emergency? In fact, if take up rates in New Jersey are at all similar to those in California, then they can expect that women will account for 80 percent of the state’s paid family leave claims, and nearly 90 percent of the claims will be for bonding with a new child.

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By the time our next president takes the office, 50 million Americans will be living and working without health insurance.

By the time he or she seeks re-election, health care costs in the United States will reach $3 trillion — with medical costs rising twice as fast as workers’ wages.

For those reasons, health care is at the center of the presidential debate this year. We believe America needs a universal health care plan, based on the principle of shared responsibility. Coverage should extend to all Americans, with business, patients and government sharing the cost.

So we’re delighted that both Democratic candidates have offered constructive plans that follow that principle. And we’re pleased that both have included interesting ideas for keeping costs down and increasing the efficiency of the system as a whole.

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This summer, the U.S. Senate is expected to consider groundbreaking, bipartisan legislation to reduce our country’s greenhouse-gas emissions. Through this bill we would harness market forces to fight manmade climate change and reduce emissions from power plants, factories, office buildings, and vehicles.

It might surprise some to learn that transportation is the fastest-growing source of carbon emissions. To address this, legislation was signed into law last December to require cars to average 35 miles per gallon (mpg) by 2020, up from 25 mpg today. Our current climate-change bill includes a provision to require cleaner fuels.

But we need to do more to address how far people drive. Since 1970, overall energy consumption - in spite of vehicle fuel-efficiency improvements - has grown by 41 percent. This is partly because the vehicle miles traveled in the United States grew 148 percent. This increase is largely due to longer commutes and shifts in driving patterns, not population growth. In fact, population growth accounts for only 38 percent of the increase in vehicle miles. Between 2005 and 2030, consumption is expected to increase another 59 percent.

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The U.S. Treasury recently reported that the federal deficit will hit a record high of $311 billion for the first half of the fiscal year, thanks in part to plunging corporate profits and revenues. The report was greeted with stifled yawns by official Washington. Similar indifference greeted the Social Security and Medicare trustees when they issued their annual spring warning about an even bigger fiscal time bomb: exploding entitlement costs.

The trustees are used to being ignored, but this year’s warning is more serious than ever: In 2008, the oldest of 77 million baby boomers will reach the age of eligibility for Medicare and Social Security. It is the beginning of an unprecedented demographic surge that threatens to overwhelm the nation’s finances if we don’t act, and soon.

To this end, members of the Brookings-Heritage Fiscal Seminar, a nonpartisan group of 16 federal budget and policy experts, of which I am member, have hammered out an innovative plan for averting a fiscal meltdown. The basic idea is simple: Take entitlement spending off auto-pilot, and establish a fixed, overall budget for the programs.

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Republican presidential candidate, Sen. John McCain (Ariz.) recently proposed means-testing the Medicare prescription drug benefit. It’s one more piece of a health policy that seems to be under construction. So far, he has mostly revived failed Bush health care proposals. Although he has some good ideas, like means-testing the drug benefit, he has generally followed a Darwinian approach where Americans with diseases would pay more for their health care coverage if they were lucky enough to get it. Here’s how:

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Competition and democracy go hand in hand. After races that came down to the narrowest of margins in Florida in 2000 and Ohio in 2004, Americans are getting used to hard-fought, close presidential elections — and the 2008 campaign is the most electrifying in years. Both Democratic candidates have won more primary votes than any previous nominee. Both have ushered new voters into the process, as has the sheer closeness of the campaign.

But real competition is still a rare commodity in the House of Representatives, which the Framers designed to be hard-fought. For all the talk of thin majorities in both chambers of Congress, artfully designed districts protect most House members from the sword of Damocles. During the 2002 election, when Republicans maintained control of the House, a full 91 percent of members defeated their opponents by 10 percentage points or more. Four years later — in an election in which Democrats took control of both chambers — all but 60 of the 435 voting members of the House won by more than 10 points.

The relative comfort that most members of Congress enjoy — so stark in comparison to the half-percent and 2 1/2 -percent margins in the past two presidential elections — diminishes the power voters can exert over the agenda in Washington. When members can’t lose, voters do — because it takes the pressure off Congress to get the job done.

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The investigative arm of Congress scolded the Bush administration last week for its failure to craft a single, comprehensive, interagency strategy against terrorism.

It’s not that the administration lacks plans. In fact, the Government Accountability Office concluded, the problem is just the opposite: an excess of disjointed efforts. The CIA has one plan, the State Department another - and the military probably has 50.

This is not a small matter. The lack of a unified approach has played a significant role in permitting Osama bin Laden and his closest associates, post-9/11, to regenerate their ability to attack the U.S. by securing a haven on the Afghanistan-Pakistan border.

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Al Gore’s Nobel Peace Prize award last year gave new energy to climate-change diplomacy. In the award’s wake, our next president has a unique chance to meet the world’s single biggest environmental challenge with a landmark agreement that commits the United States to re-join international efforts to cut gases that are causing the planet to warm. But such an agreement won’t be enough, because the world’s environmental institutions are too weak and too fragmented to enforce it. He or she should therefore accompany climate change policy with institutional reform: specifically, creation of a Global Environmental Organization, or “GEO.”

Even setting climate change aside, the need for a GEO is clear. Environmental policy is the orphan child of international law and institutions. Those interested in preserving the environment are far less able to make policy work than their cousins in trade, finance, labor and security.

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