Record Voter Turnouts Promising for Progressives
One of the emerging political stories of the presidential nominating contest this year is high turnout, a sign of relatively high levels of citizen engagement in the election process that should carry over until November. But a big part of this story should be of cheer to Democrats no matter which candidate they prefer: the Democratic contest is attracting startling numbers of voters in state after state, with independents being especially attracted to the Donkey brand.
It started in Iowa, where 239,000 Democrats showed up to caucus. That was almost twice the all-time record. Fewer than half as many Republicans attended the GOP caucus — even though the state was razor tight in the last two presidential elections.
It happened again in New Hampshire, where 287,000 Democrats turned out for the primary, roughly 25 percent more than the record crowd of 2004. Meanwhile, Republican turnout was up just 1 percent from the last competitive primary there, in 2000, and fell behind Democratic turnout by 45,000 votes.
Nevada — new to this early state process — watched 116,000 voters show up to caucus for the Democrats. Eight years ago, there were only about 1,000 people doing the same. Admittedly, Republicans did not campaign as hard in the state as Democrats, but their turnout was paltry — only 44,315 voted in their caucus.
On January 26, 532,227 South Carolinians voted in the state’s Democratic primary, up nearly 80 percent from 2004 (which had been the highest turnout in history to that point). Defying all expectations, the Democratic turnout outstripped that of the Republican primary for the first time since 1992, and by 86,000 votes (turnout on the Republican side dropped about 120,000 from the last competitive primary in 2000). To put it another way, the Democratic winner, Barack Obama, won more votes than all the Democratic candidates in 2004, and more than the top two Republican finishers this year.
And in Florida, in a closed primary where independents could not participate, 1.6 million voters participated in the Democratic balloting, even though no candidate campaigned there, and (as of now) no delegates were awarded. This total only trailed Republican turnout by about 300,000, even though the four competitive GOP candidates spent small fortunes in the state and the results were widely trumpeted as crucial to the nomination.
In states where independents have been able to participate, the percentages choosing Democratic ballots have been striking. Iowa technically has closed caucuses, but the ability to change one’s registration at the caucuses themselves meant that many indies participated (about 47,000, according to entrance polls). About three out of four doing so participated in the Democratic caucuses.
In New Hampshire, where registered independents can vote in either primary, they split Democratic about three-to-two. And while South Carolina has no party registration, exit polls suggested that about 200,000 participated in both primaries; again, more than 60 percent voted in the Democratic primary, despite the state’s historically conservative electorate.
The truly enormous primary night will, of course, be on Super Tuesday, where contests will be held in 22 states and two territories. If the above patterns repeat themselves then, and the odds are high that they will, Democrats can conclude they have a significant tailwind going into the general election. It’s not an infallible indicator, by any means; similar partisan turnout patterns prevailed in 1988, which ended with a Republican victory. But if you add in the unprecedented and massive overall Democratic advantage in fundraising during the presidential nominating contest — especially among small donors, where Republicans have historically had the edge — and polls consistently showing higher Democratic voter satisfaction with the candidate field than Republicans, there’s plenty of grounds for Democratic optimism at this point.